Common wisdom tells us that when times get rough we’ll learn who our real friends are. I can attest to have found that out over the last 9 months. It went as expected in hindsight in both ways positive and negative.
On the larger global scale, I must say I am still struggling with words to describe the last 9 months. The best I can come up with is that it still feels like watching a crash in super-slow motion. You know where everything is going but can’t do anything to stop it.
I think the worst for me is that everybody has been doing exactly what you’d expect them to do and that created a perfect storm.
Scientists
Having worked in academia myself, I was not shocked to see so many claiming to be experts only to get a tiny bit of attention. Scientists usually don’t get much of it. It is common for academic research to take a threat (dangerous substance, radiation, pathogen, etc.) and get funds to observe that threat in some unrealistic scenario ‘to protect public health,’ and ‘just to be on the safe side,’ and so on.
Naturally along came studies that were crafted to get a piece of the big disaster funding pie by somehow kneading the virus into a possibly pre-existing scope. An example is one study that aimed to test how far ocean waves can carry the virus. The scientist behind that study got her five seconds of local fame because her premise supported beach closures. Maybe I should point out that to date the virus was not found or is expected to be found in meaningful concentrations in coastal waters. As a respiratory virus, it does not survive that well in non-respiratory liquids. The virus’ physicochemical properties are exactly what they ought to be based on its known composition. A lot of scientists earn their living by confirming expected properties and behaviors. The mechanisms inside the human body are what make viruses unique.
Also, scientists are not well equipped or not willing to communicate complex situations in simple terms. Probability calculations that involve dynamic situations have one problem: a very large range of possible outcomes. When you toss ten coins you will get something between 10 heads and 10 tails. Most likely 5 heads and 5 tails. But that was not what was communicated. The worst possible but most unlikely outcome became the anchor that drove the conversation. The probability of occurrence was quickly forgotten. We just wanted to be on the safe side.
Good scientists are great in their jobs because they know one topic better than anyone else. So they see everything through that super-focused lens. Including risk.
But what really is the safe side in a complex society?
The safe side of never getting exposed to fire is to never use fire in any form in your home. But well, and even then there your neighbors who you can’t control, and lightning strikes, and… I hope you get the gist. It’s not that simple, unfortunately.
The News Media
Our internal programming lets us take more interest in forecasts of bad events than in good news. It’s natural to avoid danger, so any piece that proclaims imminent threats to our well being is like a drug that we can’t let go of.
The news media knows that of course, and in a time of declining newspaper sales, the number of clicks became the metric to improve. The worst-case scenario becomes fact because it sells better. And so in an already bad situation, things have to get worse to keep up the fear and the clicks. A treacherous cycle. Constant hyperbole does not help to make rational decisions.
Politicians
“Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
Whether or not you think politicians are responsible for our well-being depends on your political views. That most politicians in high offices enjoy having power I think is indisputable. Consequently, decisions are often based on political power strategies over actual public health considerations. In a democracy, we elect representatives to represent our best interests. Unfortunately, in this crisis, many politicians decided the people are not smart enough to know what their best interests are. And so most decisions were made without involving the public, which naturally leads to doubt, opposition, and non-compliance. It also didn’t help that so many did not follow their own preachings.
Public Health Officials
I’ll leave it to Abram Maslov to describe the situation: “I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.”
In California where I live seasonal expected increases in infections are answered by increasingly stringent shutdowns. Obviously, if people can’t come together they can’t infect each other. However, there are so many exceptions that it almost seems they are not meant to protect human health but to strategically eliminate certain industries. I understand, the job of a public health official is to protect public health and since virus deaths are the prime metric (over suicides, drug overdoses, cancer deaths, etc.) those are what needs to be avoided at all costs. Unfortunately not with much success.
This is a world-wide crisis, but somehow no official seems to consider what worked and what didn’t in other countries. Shutdowns are the only tool in the toolbox and so I am afraid people will continue to suffer along with businesses just exacerbating the problems.
All of us
Around early March I heard someone on the radio state that “disasters unify but pandemics divide.” If I remember right, he wrote a book about big historical events and their effect on the communities that they affected. He further explained that while disasters – for example the devastation from an earthquake – create the idea of getting through this together, pandemics do the opposite. In order to get through a pandemic together, we have to avoid each other. Even worse, we suspect each other to be sick and spread the disease. Since it started we used language that made clear it’s others that are to blame “don’t kill my grandma, mask up” or “if you don’t wear a mask you should sign a waiver to not get treated if you get sick.”
When people who have been very cautious get sick, it must have been because of someone who thought it’s all a hoax. Yes, careful drivers get hit by reckless drivers, but sometimes a generally good driver hits another car as well. It’s just not that simple. Randomly closing certain businesses is like banning only blue cars. But that won’t prevent all accidents. Not driving would.
I am sure showing empathy on social media and in real life would go a long way, also.
While the damage is already visibly very bad, the crash is long from over and I am still holding my breath. Hoping that one day we’ll be better.